Nate the Great and 538
Nate Silver, the quant jock who created the website: www.fivethirtyeight.com (538) has proved his detractors wrong once again and accurately predicted the outcome of the presidential election (Obama). Despite the conservatives claiming the presidential election was too close to call and trying to spin Romney as the front-runner (especially after the first debate), the race had never been that close, according to Silver. Obama always had a strong chance of winning: ranging from a low of 63% on Oct. 9th to a high of 91% the day before the election. In terms of electoral votes, Silver predicted (on election day) Obama would obtain 313 electoral votes while Romney would obtain 225. The actual outcome was 303 electoral votes for Obama and 206 for Romney, with Florida too close to call. And yet numerous news stations, talk shows, radio programs, and newspapers predicted the 2012 presidential election too close to call. Why is that? Read more 
Nate Silver and 538
Four years ago, Nate Silver created “538 dot com” or “538” – a blog that applies mathematical models/statistical analysis to predict election results. Frustrated with the lack of quantitative methods in polling data and prediction models reported in the media, Silver used his math skills to analyze polls and predictors for their size and historical margin of error and make his own predictions. His results were astounding with an accurate prediction in the Democratic primary in March, 2008 (Obama) followed by the Presidential election (in 49 out of the 50 states) and the winner of every 2008 US Senate race. Since the 2008 election, Silver has continued his success and has a proven track record for predicting who our elected officials will be. Read more
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